Top Dozen Democrats who have not made a presidential endorsement

Sure, Hillary has a huge advantage in New Jersey, and she already has the backing of the state’s two most powerful elected leaders. But nothing’s certain, and if any other candidates hope to pull an upset, they’ll likely need the backing of these important Democrats who have not yet picked a horse.

This early in the race, the most important endorsements will come from political figures who can create buzz and raise money, according to Ingrid Reed Director of the New Jersey Project at the Eagleton Institute of Politics. Closer to February, politicians with more grass roots support will have a greater impact.

“The purpose of these early endorsements… basically is to boost the person’s candidacy among leadership,” said Reed. “Because they’re the people who are paying attention.”

1. Frank Lautenberg

As New Jersey’s senior United States Sneator, Lautenberg’s support carries a lot of prestige. His sheer name recognition and standing put him on top of our list.

While he hasn’t endorsed anyone yet, the common wisdom is that he’ll go for Hillary.

“The expectation will be that he endorses Hillary,” said David Rebovich. “If he does not, that’s where the surprise starts, and people will start to ask why. I wonder if Frank wants to be courted a little bit, and fair enough.”

2. Joe Ferriero

He’s not just any County Chairman – he runs the party in the state’s most populous county, and is credited with a lot of the headway the Democrats have recently made there. He’s known for keeping his organization in lock step, and is credited with vanquishing county Republicans, who held a majority of local offices there as recently as 2002.

“There is no doubt that I will make an endorsement and will urge the entire BCDO to do the same,” said Ferriero.

There’s also no doubt that Ferriero has the ability to turn out the votes in this primary. As a testament to his influence, he’s been courted by Clinton and Obama – meeting them both privately. He’s also scheduled to meet with Bill Richardson.

“The old line is to win a statewide election in New Jersey, you have to win Bergen County,” said Rebovich. “That might not hold true for primaries, but a Ferriero endorsements is something that will definitely be coveted by democratic frontrunners.”

3. George Norcross

His name recognition may not be enough to sway the average voter, but in terms of votes in South Jersey and fundraising everywhere, having Norcross on your side can only help in the Democratic primary.

Norcross’s endorsement would be especially Candidates will also want to win over political leaders in South Jersey, where Norcross is the most powerful Democratic political boss.

“In South Jersey he’s certainly seen as a civic leader, not just a political leader,” said Reed. “But again, he has his network, he knows how politics work – if he endorses a candidate he certainly will work for that candidate.”

Norcross has not publicly endorsed anyone, but two of his chief political allies, Assembly Speaker Joe Roberts and Congressman Rob Andrews, have backed Clinton, giving a good indication of who he’s likely to back. (Note: keep an eye on his brother, Donald Norcross, the South Jersey AFL-CIO President and the Camden County Democratic Co-Chairman; that too will send a clear signal.)

4. Charles Wowkanech

While he brought Obama in to speak to hundreds of AFL-CIO members in Trenton last month, Wowkanech has yet to make an endorsement, saying that he’s going to wait until early 2008 to do so.

It goes without saying that the endorsement of the AFL-CIO means a lot in the Democratic primary.

“He would be in my in my top 10,” said Rebovich. “As not just President of the AFL-CIO, but as a respected labor leader, and at a time when organized leader is jittery about who the next president will be and how domestic and foreign policies will impact on their job prospects.”

5. Steven Goldstein

Garden State Equality won't be making an endorsement for the primary, but sources say that its President, Steven Goldstein, will.

Sources say that Goldstein is going to throw his support behind Hillary Clinton, but he has not officially announced it. And as a leader of New Jersey’s gay community, which is politically active in Democratic primaries, Goldstein’s endorsement could carry weight, regardless of the organization’s neutral stance.

Having Goldstein’s endorsement could help Clinton overcome the distaste of some gays and lesbians for the “don't ask, don't tell” military policy that her husband instituted.

“It certainly matters to a portion of the electorate that votes democrat and tends to turn out to vote,” said Rebovich.

6. Brian Stack

Jerramiah Healy, who’s expected to be elected HCDO Chairman tonight, has already endorsed Obama. So it will be interesting to see who Brian Stack, the other political boss of this urban Democratic district, supports.

As Hudson is the most heavily Democratic county in the state, it can turn out big numbers in a primary.

“The guy can turn out votes, has momentum and he works like crazy,” said Rebovich.

But whether Stack’s endorsement will mean anything this early in the race is up for debate. He’ll be able to churn out votes from the party faithful, but his endorsement may not mean too much for the publicity and fundraising efforts that are so important this early in the campaign.

”With Brian Stack, any national candidate in New Jersey would probably want his support, but there are kind of points of influence, and I think joining up now is not really going to bring attention to the presidential candidate’s campaign unless there’s some kind of big event or special effort.”

7. Bill Pascrell

Congressman Pascrell, who served for six years as Mayor of Paterson, is known as a champion of the middle and working classes -- his district is made up of the Democratic party’s traditional working class backbone. He has a good record with labor and is said to have strong support from senior citizens, which can’t hurt. He also wields enormous influence over the Passaic County Democratic Organization.

“His point of view or his endorsement would be respected by organized labor, urban residents and senior citizens,” said Rebovich.

8. Ron Rice, Sr.

Threatened by Cory Booker, Rice pulled through in his State Senate race. Now he’s got a bone to pick, and could potentially neutralize Booker’s endorsement of Obama by picking one of the other candidates – at least within his own district. He does not enjoy the same statewide popularity as Booker, however.

Still, Rice has a large constituency in his district and having his support could matter. But he says it’s too early to make a decision.

“I have to look at all the candidates – it’s about who’s going to lead the country, and that’s important. We’re starting to react now without looking at all the facts and enough background of all the candidates,” he said.

9. Steve Rothman

Rothman has a strong record on local issues as well as international ones. He’s well respected by environmental advocates and is particularly outspoken on Israel and the larger Middle-East.

His district ranges from suburban to urban, covering towns in Bergen, Passaic and Hudson Counties, and its proximity to New York helps get him major market media face time.

Still, his track record is unremarkable. He backed Joe Lieberman in 2004.

“By representing part of that state, he sometimes gets New York media and can speak to metropolitan issues,” said Rebovich.

10. Rush Holt

Holt’s not exactly a political firebrand, but the Congressman has a lot of respect and credibility in his district and throughout the state. But no word on if or when Holt will make an endorsement.

“He is very pleased that the field of Democratic candidates is so deep and talented,” said Holt spokesman Matt Dennis.

Holt, the son of a former West Virginia Senator, is not known to take positions without considerable thought and deliberation. An endorsement from him will likely be looked at as genuine by his fellow Democrats.

“He has high credibility as not just a progressive democrat, but a very thoughtful congressman weighs evidence in making decisions,” said Rebovich. “You tend to listen carefully when Holt takes a position. While he is a liberal, Holt is regarded as a Congressman who doesn't arrive at positions lightly.”

11. Donald Payne

Congressman Payne has deep roots in Newark, another Democratic powerhouse, and he has what could be the most liberal voting record of all New Jersey congressmen– something that appeals to many of the voters who will turn out in a Democratic primary.

Payne also the head of a political dynasty, albeit one in clear decline. His brother is Assemblyman and State Senate candidate William Payne, and his nephew is the recently vanquished Assemblyman Craig Stanley. Payne’s endorsement could also prove influential in northern New Jersey’s African American communities.

“In the case of Payne, a Payne endorsement of Hillary or Obama would be a major statement for either candidate in urban areas and among African Americans in North Jersey,” said Rebovich.

12. Albio Sires

He’s only been in Congress a short time, and he may face a primary challenge next year, but Albio Sires does come from Hudson County. That fact alone should give him some clout in the upcoming Democratic primary.

“Sires can play that role for one candidate as having more supporters among the congressional delegation than others, but certainly if he endorsed a candidate there'd be an assumption that he would work hard in the February primary to get his people out, and there are a lot of democratic votes in Hudson County,” said Reed.