Rhode Island

The Quinnipiac University poll gives U.S. Senator Frank Lautenberg a 44%-33% approval rating, and the Cook Political Report, an independent, non-partisan newsletter which that analyzes U.S. Senate races, has New Jersey's 2008 U.S. Senate race in the Safe Democratic column. Democrats have won eleven consecutive U.S. Senate races in New Jersey; the last GOP winner was Clifford Case in 1972.

There seems to be little question that the 84-year-old Frank Lautenberg will seek a fifth term in 2008. He didn't exactly enjoy retirement the first time around -- close friends say he regretted his decision not to run in 2000 almost instantly -- and as long as he's healthy and popular, Democratic office seekers might want to avoid making plans for an open seat in 2014.

Political junkies need only remember the story of Theodore Green, a Democratic politician from Rhode Island. Green was 69-years-old when he was elected to the Senate in 1936. Because of his age, it was assumed that he would have a short career in the Senate. But Green went on to serve four terms, retiring in 1960 when he was 93. An entire generation of Rhode Island politicians miscalculated by planning their political careers on the assumption that Green would soon retire.

A pair of New Jersey political operatives now holding senior positions at the Republican National Committee can rightfully claim a great deal of credit for U.S. Senator Lincoln Chafee's victory in the Rhode Island Republican primary yesterday. It was the voter turnout operation of RNC Political Director Michael DuHaime and Bill Stepien, who runs the 72-Hour Campaign operation, that helped Chafee -- who trailed conservative Stephen Laffey, the Mayor of Cranston, 34%-51% in a recent poll -- secure a solid victory in a record turnout primary. Hotline Editor Chuck Todd said last night that the "RNC 72-hour program has once again surpassed expecations."

DuHaime joined the RNC in 2004 after serving as Regional Political Director for the Bush/Cheney re-election campaign. He served as Executive Director of the New Jersey Republican State Committee, as Deputy Campaign Manager of Bob Franks' 2000 U.S. Senate bid, and as Campaign Manager for Anthony Bucco's successful State Senate campaign in 1997. Bucco's defeat of Gordon MacInnes nine years ago was the last time an incumbent Democratic Senator lost re-election.

(DuHaime's hometown is Hoboken, which has become the political capital of New Jersey; Governor Jon Corzine, Senator Bob Menendez and Senate Majority Leader/Hudson County Democratic Chairman Bernard Kenny all live there.)

Stepien spent the last week on the ground in Rhode Island, as he did earlier this year in a special election for Congress in California's 50th district, where the 72-Hour campaign was credited with the win in a nationally important House race. He started out in politics working on Bucco's '97 campaign, worked as Franks's driver in the 2000 Senate race, managed Bill Baroni's 2003 campaign that unseated incumbent Gary Guear, and served as Field Director of the Bush/Cheney campaign in New Hampshire in 2004.

The potential impact of today's Republican primary for United States Senate in Rhode Island on New Jersey politics: if incumbent Lincoln Chafee loses the GOP primary to conservative Steven Laffey, both parties will view the seat as already won by the Democratic nominee, Sheldon Whitehouse. That will allow both national parties to drop Rhode Island from their target list -- which means more money to spend on the U.S. Senate race between Bob Menendez and Tom Kean, Jr. If Chafee wins renomination, both parties will spend heavily to win this seat in a state where campaigns don't cost nearly as much as they do in a state split between the expensive New York and Philadelphia media markets.