Chuck Haytaian

With a 22-point lead in his bid for re-election, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released this morning, Frank Lautenberg is likely to break two new records -- he'll become the first five-term United States Senator in New Jersey history, and he'll break his own record as the oldest person to ever win a statewide election in this state.  But there is one more record that Lautenberg could break -- the biggest winning percentage in a U.S. Senate race. That record belongs to Bill Bradley, who won 64.2% against Mary Mochary in 1984.  

Lautenberg could become the fifth Senator in state history to win more than 60% of the vote; if this is the last campaign for the 84-year-old Democrat, it's not a bad way to go out -- especially since Lautenberg has never passed the 54% mark before.  He won 50.9% against Millicent Fenwick in 1982, 53.5% against Peter Dawkins in 1988, 50.3% against Chuck Haytaian in 1994, and 53.9% against Douglas Forrester in 2002.

Frank Lautenberg, who has never amassed huge approval ratings in independent polls and has never won more than 55% of the vote in a general election, appears likely to become the first five-term United States Senator in New Jersey history.  The 84-year-old Democrat  is positioned to break Clifford Case's record of 24 years in statewide office in December.  He has already passed Harrison Williams for number two on that list.

Some analysts say that Lautenberg has been lucky -- the fortunate beneficiary of the Republicans nominating the wrong candidate in each of his elections.  His first campaign was against Millicent Fenwick, an iconic 72-year-old Congresswoman who was the model for Doonsbury's Lacey Davenport character.  But Fenwick refused to raise PAC money and couldn't compete with Lautenberg's vast self-financed warchest.  Old-time GOP'ers say that Jim Courter, then a two-term Congressman, would have been a stronger candidate for the open Senate seat. 

There seems to be a general consensus among political insiders as to who won the Democratic U.S. Senate debate: Steve DeMicco.  Frank Lautenberg was less than impressive – not even close to his performance in previous debates against Millicent Fenwick, Pete Dawkins, Chuck Haytaian and Doug Forrester – but the debate was at 8PM on a Friday night, so it didn’t really matter.  That’s why DeMicco, Lautenberg’s consultant, was the winner – his campaign took quite a few hits for not engaging Rob Andrews in network TV debates, but it appears that was the right call.

If the reports are accurate – frankly, there has been so much confusion over the last six weeks that it’s hard to believe any of this – Republicans may have found a credible U.S. Senate candidate in Dick Zimmer. 

Legend has it that many State Senators view themselves as gubernatorial material, but historically incumbent New Jersey legislators are often unsuccessful in their campaigns for Governor. Over the last fifty years, only four incumbent legislators -- State Senators Malcolm Forbes (1957), Wayne Dumont (1965), Raymond Bateman (1977) and James E. McGreevey (1997) -- have won gubernatorial primaries, and all four have lost their general elections. The last time someone went directly from the Legislature to Governor was in 1928, when Morgan Larson, a Republican State Senator from Middlesex County, won. No incumbent member of the New Jersey State Assembly has ever been elected Governor.

U.S. Senator Frank Lautenberg has never amassed huge approval numbers in public opinion polls, but he’s never lost an election either.

As he approached his first re-election campaign, Lautenberg was at a 36%-21% approval rating in a February 1988 Eagleton Institute poll; voters said they would re-elect Lautenberg over a Republican by a 37%-24% margin.  In that race, Lautenberg defeated retired Army General Peter Dawkins by a 54%-46% margin.