State Senate '07, Part Two
By Wally EdgeDemocrats are spending money in four districts where they have a reasonable shot at picking up seats: against GOP incumbents Nicholas Asselta in district 1, Sonny McCullough in district 2, and Gerald Cardinale in the 39th; for open seats in District 8 (where Republican-turned-Democrat Assemblyman Francis Bodine faces Burlington County Clerk Philip Haines for the seat being vacated by retiring Senator Martha Bark.
And to a lesser extent, Democrats are watching the 11th and 14th districts, where two veteran GOP Senators are retiring. The Republican candidates in those districts, Assemblymen Sean Kean and Bill Baroni, are considered favorites in their respective races against Democrats John Villapiano, a former Assemblyman and Monmouth County Freeholder, and ex-state Ratepayer Advocate Seema Singh.
Senate Minority Whip Thomas Kean, Jr. seems to have the votes to oust Lance after the election – and Kean will likely get re-elected by voters in his own Republican-leaning district. There are some Democrats – indeed, rather powerful ones – who have taken a special interest in former Long Hill Mayor Gina Genovese’s challenge to Kean. Those Democrats want to mess with the incumbent a little – clearly as payback for his campaign against Robert Menendez in the 2006 U.S. Senate race.
And Republicans have a credible challenger in Gloucester Township Councilwoman Shelley Lovett against freshman State Senator Frederick Madden in the fourth district. Madden only won that seat by 63 votes after South Jersey Democrats broke fundraising records to get that seat. But without money from Lance and Republican State Chairman Tom Wilson, Lovett doesn’t have a chance.
The best opportuity for the Republicans to pick up a Democratic seat is in the 12th district, where Republican Assemblywoman Jennifer Beck faces Democratic State Senator Ellen Karcher. With the backing of Codey, Karcher has a huge financial edge over Beck, who rarely hears from Lance.
Colletti could emerge as a real contender for State Senate, if Coniglio refuses Bergen County Democratic Chairman Joseph Ferriero’s soon-to-come call telling him to drop his re-election bid.
Right now, it looks as though Lance’s bets case scenario is a 20-20 split: that would mean holding all GOP seats and picking up Beck and Colletti – no easy task. More upsetting to the GOP is their worst case scenario, which could come excruciatingly close to the ten seats they had after the 1973 Watergate landslide.
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Net = Dems+2
Van Drew and Whelan. Take it to the bank.
definitely
Van Drew and Whelan for sure. Dems will pick up an Assembly seat in the 2nd and 14th as well.
Lance is smart to stear clear of Beck
she is floundering. Her tactics are unbecoming, partisan and ineffective. If Lance becomes too closely allied with her and the other scrappy elements of his party it will hurt his chances to find a soft landing spot when he leaves elected office.
The 14? Come on now...
The 2nd yes and even the 1st but not the 14th. Baroni will carry that seat easily and take down the freaky Linda G in the process...his coat tails aer legit...
14th ticket splitters
The voters in the 14th are ticket splitters. No one has coattails there.
Mr. Grover has returned.
Ah Grover!!!
If the 14th are ticket splitters and no one has coattails that bodes badly for Wayne since he can't ride Linda Greensteins coattails and name recognition.
I dont think anyone can predict what'll happen to that open Assembly Seat but dont doubt Adam Bushman or Tom Goodwin. They are knocking on doors and getting out there and Adam received a suprising NJEA Endorsement to boost his campaign while Tom is very popular in Hamilton.
Look at the polls
Folks: If you're truly insiders, look at your campaign's polls and THEN come back and tell me that the 14th district assembly races are competitive. People can bloviate on here all they want, but the numbers tell the tale: Linda and Wayne are so far ahead of Bushman/Paquette (or whatever their names are), it's embarrassing.
Remember, the average voter doesn't read this stuff. Everyone on here is somewhat of an insider, although some obviously more than others. Fact is that Greenstein is just as popular as Baroni in the 14th.
Haines a Walk
Phil Haines is much beloved in Burlco and should not have a hard time beating Turncoat Bodine. Bodine is so tainted by his own doing (and the dems cannot harp on the Bark Scandal because they would have to include him) so they have to try to do the dirty way to defeat Haines. Fortunately, Haines is a great guy and has done so much for the County and I predict will beat Bodine 3-1
More Cowbell Please !!
Pascoe Kiss of Death
Asselta might have had a chance but now that he has Bill" never won in New jersey" Pascoe running his sleaze campaign he has no chance. Bring on the Solid South ! Adler, Sweeney, Whelan, Van Drew!
Bodine is a Conservative
No self respecting pro-choice, anti-gun, pro-environment, pro-women's rights, etc, etc, etc, liberal voter will come out to vote for Fran Bodine.
He embodies every ideology they oppose.
Even the teachers union that typically endorsed him took a pass this year.
The Republicans will, in fact, rush out to vote AGAINST him because of his abuse of taxpayer dollars (he collects a state pension while collecting a state salary and has been doing this for 9 years - basically took advantage of a loophole and bilked us out of $500K) and other ethical lapses.
I hope the D's do spend money in the 8th, it will take resources away from other key races.
Grover works for Linda
What the hell polls are you talking about Grover???
There are no polls in the 14th yet dumbass. Maybe your "insider" numbers are way off. (or don't even exist)
It's Bushman and Goodwin and I would bet the polls, if they existed, would say it's a toss up like politicsnj said a few months ago.
Linda Greenstein more popular than Bill Baroni????
hahahhahaha.
Stop..your just too funny. Can't even take that statement seriously.
partisanship aside
There are four districts in play -- 1, 2, 12 and 39.
Everything else is at best a long shot or the fix is in.
If Uncle Joe doesn't tidy things up in 38 and/or if EnCap/Xanadu muddies 36, then the GOP would dodge a bullet in 39. More likely, I see at least one, if not both, assembly members going bye bye.
Of the other three, I think the Dems net a seat any which way you cut it.
In the end, the Dems will gain seats in both chambers, as the NJGOP slides down the path of other state GOPs in the Northeast, which serve as nothing more than political lawn jockeys.
POHO
Lance has much to lose by helping Beck. She is not well respected by members of her own party. She stabs her colleagues in the back and lies to their faces to get the smallest advantage. It's no wonder she has failed to get a single bill passed. Lance is wise to look in greener pastures.
12th district will soon be out of play as the GOP fizzles
The Republicans are getting more and more frustrated by the day. They have no coherent message, and no credibility. Most importantly, thet have no money because no one has the faith to invest in this race. This could get interesting in a "let's watch the Republicen train wreck" kinda way the more desperate they become.
Man the dem
Man the dem spin...wow..outta control.
Man the dem
Man the dem spin...wow..outta control.
The question is...
Will DFA of Burlington County endorse Bodine or will they label him a right-wing fascist? And who will they get to replace the Plumber? Jim "The School Landscaper" Tedesco, Bob "Yes, Ferriero" Gordon, Joan "No Patee for You" Voss. Heck maybe the Inventor of the Coin David Ganz or Godfather Jerry Calabrese want to be Senators too. By the way, either of the last two would be much more entertaining, Tedesco is as exciting as a gray Camry with no options.
Hey Biggles
Hey Dude, lay off the koolaide
More Cowbell Please !!