Monmouth/Gannett poll director defends methodology, says Menendez's pollster is spinning
By Wally EdgeMonmouth University Polling Director Patrick Murray says that pollster Joel Benenson has a history of "smearing" polls that have his candidate ahead and defended the methodology used in a Gannett New Jersey poll released yesterday that shows Tom Kean, Jr. leading Bob Menendez by six points.
"Benenson's critique of the latest Monmouth University poll on the Senate race is based on inaccurate assumptions about the poll's methodology, specifically the demographic composition of the final voter sample," Murray said in an e-mail to PoliticsNJ.com. "My poll releases always indicate the 'unweighted' number of respondents in each demographic group so that informed poll observers can make their own assessment of the margin of error within each group. I do worry that unsophisticated poll watchers may misinterpret these numbers, and this appears to be the case here."
"The weighted demographic distributions for party identification in Sunday's poll -- the distribution upon which the final horse race numbers are based -- is 33% Dem, 26% Rep, and 41% Ind, which is slightly more Democratic than Benenson claims it 'should' be," said Murray. "As to race, my voter sample is 12% African-American and 10% Hispanic, which is also higher than Benenson claims it should be."
"Unfortunately, Mr. Benenson has a history of smearing public polls when they don't benefit his client. Four years ago, he blasted the Star-Ledger/Eagleton Poll for numbers which showed Doug Forrester taking a commanding lead over his client, Bob Torricelli. Two days after that poll was released, Torricelli pulled out of the race. I doubt very much that this would have happened if the internal campaign poll numbers did not match the public poll," said Murray.
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This is the same Monmouth Univeristy Polling Institute that show
This is the same Monmouth Univeristy Polling Institute that showed that the overwhelming majority of Municipalities in Menendez's Congressional District where he keeps his minions in power are in the crapper
. I guess this was Menendez's attempt at retaliation for exposing facts.
If only the walls at HoJo's on Route 3 could talk.
Matt - Benenson just got schooled. He didn't even take the trou
Matt - Benenson just got schooled. He didn't even take the trouble to figure out the real methodology of the poll. Menendez is down in the polls, and yes, his internal ones say the same thing.....
Being down a few points isn't a big deal.....however, the fact that he has been trending downward is significant. This is why the Menendez campaign is freaking out. This race shouldn't be close!
Internals are up 6. Patrick Murray is probably just annoyned
Internals are up 6.
Patrick Murray is probably just annoyned that he couldn't get a job with Benenson and had to settle
Remember, these polls don't take into consideration voting fraud
Remember, these polls don't take into consideration voting fraud, which in New Jersey is probably around 200,000 votes in the D's favor.
Bobby Menendez hinted at this on ABC Sunday morning when he told George Step that he will win because of a stronger ground game.
The public should expect more votes from Hudson County than people who live there!
Why would anyone what to work for that joke of a pollster? Also
Why would anyone what to work for that joke of a pollster?
Also, Menendez' last round of internals have him down 3 points.....
Kean is up based on their polls.....
and you know this because a guy with the name SomersetRepublican
and you know this because a guy with the name SomersetRepublican is part of their meetings, right?
I know it because of what is being told to county chairs behind
I know it because of what is being told to county chairs behind closed doors. Campaigns love to share internal polls in meetings, but these numbers are always finessed.....to say the very least. Looking at the raw tabs, he is down by 3 points. Kean is up by a few.....both are within their respective margins of error. To be more specific, I have buddies working for both pollsters.
However, the more important point is the fact that Menendez has been slipping recently. This is why the campaign (and its pollster) is freaking out. Complaining about a public poll and running silly ads about Menendez as a corruption fighter are sure signs of which way the wind is blowing.
This is truly funny - even for politics in NJ. I don't remember
This is truly funny - even for politics in NJ. I don't remember such a desperate-looking attack...but it's great for students of politics because it sets a new bizarro-precedent for reaching a new low.
Remember - this is the 6th poll in a row showing Kean ahead - of a candidate whose camp thought he'd have it in the bag by September. Yes, 6th! - let's count 'em -
Monmouth/Gannett, 9/24 (44K - 38M)
Quinnipiac, 9/20/06 (48K - 45M)
Strategic Vision, 9/14/06 (44K - 40M)
Rasmussen, 9/10/06 (44K - 39M)
FDU (PublicMind), approx 8/30/06 (43K - 39M)
See a trend here, folks? Menendez does. Worried/angry calls from Dem leaders follow, and his camp (don't forget, they're just people gettin' paid to do a job they ain't doin' so well) comes up with a brilliant strategy - attack the latest poll! Intimidate them, those distorters of methodology (even...though, uh, we're not sure what methodology they used).
And the other 4 polls showing basically the same numbers over the month COMING OUT OF LABOR DAY? Uh, well, we won't mention those - people will forget.
Keep looking at those "Internals"...
Matt - If I have said it once, I have said it a thousand times
Matt -
If I have said it once, I have said it a thousand times on this board - internal polls are not worth the paper they are written on. I don't care if they are Republican or Democrat. Each are skewed to achieve a desired number or to inflate numbers. I worked with pollsters on campaigns - as a staffer to a legislator - and recognize the only numbers you can really take seriously in them are name ID and favorable/unfavorable (as long as you ask straight up - do you view candidate X favorably or unfavorably? and not with the added "If you knew he or she voted to..."
So to say the internals are more accurate is, well, just not accurate.
The race will tighten even further in the coming weeks but you cannot discount the independent polls - which are the only reliable ones out there - which show Kean with a small lead - but within the margin of error.
Statingtheobvious has it spot on -- that's six K's in a r
Statingtheobvious has it spot on -- that's six K's in a row. And that's why Monmouth is right when they say that Menendez is stagnant.
Sadly, I fully believe the contents of the Monmouth poll. Patri
Sadly, I fully believe the contents of the Monmouth poll. Patrick Murray was the #2 guy at the Eagleton poll for a long while, and he clearly knows what he's doing.
Joel Benenson has made a career of telling candidates what they want to hear, rather than giving them the advice they sorely need...such as, "HEY BOB, WAKE UP...YOU'RE LOSING"
Benenson has a habit of telling candidates what they want to hea
Benenson has a habit of telling candidates what they want to hear and spinning the press, which takes talent, but isn't the role of a pollster.
Take a look at this posting on the Rothenberg Report's website scroll down to the section on the problems with Democratic polls that starts with
"But we are starting to wonder about some Democratic polling."
http://www.rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/