When it comes to Corzine re-election, Democrats trust Team Obama
By Max Pizarro, PolitickerNJ.com Reporter
When State Democratic Chairman Joseph Cryan focused his players in the middle of the Obama presidential campaign, he told them to get ready for a long game, a two-year operation, in fact.
Despite all temptation to treat Obama’s victory like the ultimate end-zone rush and champagne romp, Election Night on Nov. 4th should be handled more the way a geared-up squad treats a 15-point lead in their favor in the locker room come half-time.
Everyone’s first job was to elect Sen. Barack Obama (D-Il.) president. In comfortably accomplishing that, the campaign made up of 45 field organizers coordinated over a million volunteer calls, pounded on 750,000 door knocks, and built a volunteer base of more than 10,000 bodies.
Now their second job is to get back on the field and re-elect Gov. Jon Corzine, whose Meet the Press appearance on Obama’s behalf, and regular Morning Joe cameos must now be chalked up to high- profile statewide second act prep work rather than Secretary of Treasury auditioning.
Bloomberg reported this afternoon that Obama wants New York Federal Bank President Timothy Geithner for Treasury.
If Corzine seeks office again and wins, it would be the first time a Democratic governor nailed re-election since Brendan Byrne in 1977.
His frontline soldiers are banking on thousands of new registered Democratic voters infused with Obama fever, and know their big challenge is to keep a structure intact and polished for the 2009 general election.
In part, that means sustaining enthusiasm for the incumbent governor, whose spreading-the-money around style of politics runs counter to what the party built on during the Obama cycle.
Michael Muller knows something about the particular mission at hand.
A 17-year veteran of campaign nuts and bolts, he directed the statewide Nov. 4th coordinated effort for the Democrats.
That involved coordination on several levels, the creation of a machine the party wants to keep rolling through next year’s statewide election.
Lacking cash from the national campaign, and using Obama’s new Democrats to voluntarily man the turrets of the old Democratic Party machine, Cryan blended a team that included the likes of coffee house Obama organizer Julie Diaz working out of Princeton headquarters under the direction of Carpenters Union machine veteran Tricia Mueller, who ran the statewide Obama campaign.
And Trenton insiders like Muller.
“What we were looking at with Obama was bringing his grassroots people into the traditional structures that already existed,” Muller said. “We wanted to channel their energy into a working model, while also making sure they continued to do some of the things they had already been doing. We strove to create one holistic and defined universe.”
Part of what Muller did was make sure new voters coming out for Obama stayed activated all the way down the ballot and punched in for U.S. Rep-elect John Adler (D-Camden), and Assemblywoman Linda Stender (D-Fanwood), who lost her 7th District congressional bid.
“The success of Obama down the ticket was built on the coordinated infrastructure designing a micro targeted GOTV universe to define demographic based targets of sporadic voters that likely would vote for other candidates on a congressional or county level,” said Muller. “Plus we ran the paid canvass and phone field effort along with GOTV in the targeted congressionals for Adler and Stender as a special project of the DSC. …We established a ground network across New Jersey to help bring Obama volunteers together with traditional Democratic field efforts which allowed for the coattail effect to take hold.”
Adler worked with an advantage over Stender on some key fronts. Not insignificantly, the state senator was one of the first elected officials in New Jersey to endorse Obama for president in the lead-up to the Democratic Primary.
“The first,” Adler asserts confidently.
That was a fact the coordinated campaign used in targeted phone calls to 6,000 newly registered voters in Willingboro, for example.
Then there was message, with Adler echoing Obama’s “Change you can believe in” sound bite in his ads, and drumming the bad economy mantra in the face of his Republican opponent’s insistence that the fundamentals of the economy were sound: a ground level mirror of Obama’s and John McCain’s horn lock at the presidential level.
When Wall Street crashed, McCain tumbled. Adler’s adversary, Medford Mayor Chris Myers, simultaneously took a hit.
“We have a candidate who is mortally wounded because he is functionally illiterate on the economy,” a top-flight GOP operative at the time moaned of McCain. Meanwhile, the message-disciplined Adler kept pace with Obama.
From an operations standpoint, Stender was more problematic.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee came in with its cookie cutter model and managed a mishmash micro-targeting effort, according to one Democratic Party operative.
“Four-four voters were getting robo calls in the middle of the summertime telling them to vote for Stender because she was a woman,” said the source. “They were going to be voting for Stender anyway. Why were they getting targeted?”
Admitted Muller, “There was a big difference between the campaigns in districts three and seven. Adler built a strong volunteer universe, while Stender became too reliant on paid workers.”
The traditional party machines also interfaced effectively in the 3rd District, with the South Jersey Democratic Organization absorbing and emboldening a hungry young Burlington County Democratic party headed by Chairman Rick Perr.
For months, Perr had told anyone who would listen that his freeholder candidates had a chance to win against Freeholder Director Aubrey Fenton and his running mate, Freeholder Stacy Jordan.
He turned out to be right.
Down-ballot working parts of the Obama-Adler campaign mechanics, Perr’s candidates humbled the opposing GOP county chairman, who on the day after the election explained that the riverside city GOTV effort by Democrats simply swamped his freeholders.
With the out-of-the-box Adler campaign as a model in a traditionally non-Democratic area, coupled with high octane urban organization, the Democrats want to move the whole effort forward to catapult Corzine over whatever Republican opposes him next year.
Skeptics say the Nov. 4th results represent a head fake when it comes to the re-election chances of this governor, who was trading bonds on Wall Street when Obama was community organizing on Chicago’s mean streets, and who now nurses a three-year tenure in hard-bitten economic times in which a “change-time” candidate won the presidency.
But as they return to the field, Muller and Cryan see only sustaining a dominating offense.
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Syndicate
Corzine Stinks
Obama inspired loyalty. Corzine inspires people to leak his own polls. Obama's team would be wise to do what Obama did this week with his Treasury Secretary pick and walk away from this two-faced Wall Street train wreck.
incredible article
Pizarro's article and analysis, which looks at how in-state infrastructure, grassroots politicking, and national organization microtargeting influenced the presidential and congressional elections in the state in 2008, is a thing to be admired. Very well written and considered.
I was part of the GOTV effort in Riverside that was mentioned in the article; while canvassing for Adler and Obama, I criss-crossed with other volunteers doing the same thing for us in adjacent neighborhoods. The Washington Post wasn't kidding when it said that Adler had one of the top GOTV organizations in the country.
One thing missing. . .
Obama would not have gotten elected without the cheerleading mainstream media. Corzine will not get the cheerleading Obama received and that will hurt him, big time.
"I figure people drift toward liberalism at a young age, and I always hope that they change when they see how the world really is.”
- Johnny Ramone
Is this supposed to be a joke
Is it a cold April Fool's Day in New Jersey? I thought the next holiday was Thanksgiving. Stender lost in Cryan's home county of Union. That alone speaks volumes to his corrupt leadership. Mueller did the best she could in the district with what she had to work with but left it to the State Chair to deliver. He failed. 9 points. Miserably. The institution dems that Corzine needs were with Hillary. The new dems with for Obama long before Corzine or Cryan came to the Obama dance. Obama dems are for change. Change = someone other than Corzine. Corzine and his corrupt inner circle (Bob Janisewski, John Lynch, Sharpe James, Mims Hackett, Wayne Bryant, Charlie Cart, Joe Ferriero,Joe Coniglio, Brick Mayor Scapello, AC Councilman Callaway) the list is endless. The election will be all about the economy, Corzine's failed toll plan among other initiatives, lack of ethics and the price of corruption on local goverment. He could spend another $100 million to win the governors office and might be successful, but in this economy people will really question his intelligence if that is the case. Corzine is going to forced to reveal his emails with Katz and they will confirm suspicious activity. Obama inspired even the unemployed. Corzine scares them with their property tax bills. HUGE difference.
"Change" only works once
Obama won based on a mantra of "change" and a platform of reform. This approach only works when the candidate is the outsider/new face. This is what put Obama over the top, along with the Republican-hating media (I won't even go into his announced cabinet appointments, this is change? OK, change from the Bush adminstration, but these are mostly D.C. insiders and Clinton-era cronies). Corzine is not a new face nor perceived as a reformer. Christie has the opportunity to cast himself as a conservative reformer that can demostrate that the corruption and ineffectiveness of the Democrats in NJ has to be "changed!!!"
cryan
was he sober when he made these remarks?
The Cryan Game
NJ has lost its American balls. This bunch of political eunochs are driving NJ to ruin. Enjoy the ride
JoeSchip
Glad to see you are back and offering some tired opinions once again. When Corzine beats up on whatever candidate the NJGOP hamhandidly selects I will love telling you I told you so.
Facts, SJ
The media was in the tank, SJ. Independent research shows it. Even the Washington Post's ombudsman admits it. That's a fact.
"I figure people drift toward liberalism at a young age, and I always hope that they change when they see how the world really is.”
- Johnny Ramone
Let's Get The Facts Straight
Corzine does not have a change of winning anything if he tries to use the Obama campaign. They showed up for Obama and clearly only Obama, just look at the congressional results in NJ for proof. The Obama campaign did nothing for other democratic candidates in NJ regardless of what they are trying to claim now after the fact. They didn't campaign for Rothman or Sires in Hudson County for example and no democrat can win the governor without winning Hudson County and by a very large margin, since Hudson County usually delivers a margin large enough to win 3 to 4 other counties for the democrats. The Obama campaign sucked money out of Hudson and gave nothing but disrespect and venom. They (Mueller and Muller) wouldn't even list Hudson Councy Chair Healey as the state Obama campaign co-chair on the website even though he was - and to his credit, that slap in the face didn't stop him from doing his job for the democratic ticket.
If Corzine or any democrat wants to be gov and wants Hudson and North Jersey support, they need to keep Muller and Mueller out of their campaign or send them on a hand-and-knees mia culpa tour.
Stender lost because she hired young, sexy, all flash, no substance campaign consultants who have never won a race in New Jersey. You get what you pay for - and she certainly did. But let's not forget, Stender and Schulman's campaigns received no substantive assistance from the Muller/Mueller "coordinated" campaign and so there was no Obama-benefit.
This is Jersey and we have very long memories and don't take disrespect laying down. North Jersey democrats showed up for Nov. 4th, but no one should assume they will be there next year. If Cryan is, then he's a complete fool.
This would be ironic
If the grassroots apparatus that went to work for Obama goes to work for Corzine, they would be trying to re-elect an executive whose administration has been completely ineffective, whose policies have helped lead to an economic collapse in this state, and whose party has shown itself to be totally corrupt. Basically, they would be trying to re-elect the George W. Bush of New Jersey.
Corzine Can't Ride Obama's Coat-tails
This whole idea is stupid. Yes, the massive turnout of new voters and minority voters gave Obama a great boost and, indeed, a great boost to Democrat candidates for the House and Senate across the United States. Few were expecting the Obama wave to unseat incumbent Republican congressmen (Shulman upsetting Garrett was their best bet and even that district is drawn too Republican for Obama's coat-tails to have much effect. What people did expect was that open seats, like those being vacated by incumbent Republicans Jim Saxton and Mike Ferguson, would be taken over by Democrats, riding a wave of voters inspired to elect Obama and any other Democrat they might find down-ticket. Both the 3rd and 7th are drawn to be Republican. Both have been in Republican hands for ages. But I believe that there are a number of reasons why Adler was able to win and Stender lost for the Democrats. I have no doubt that Adler was able to connect himself successfully with Obama by invoking the "change" slogan. But I also suspect (no actual numbers here, just a thought) that the expected increased voter turnout for Obama happened in NJ-3. In NJ-7, I specifically recall reading in the news about how that did not happen -- even though Democratic voter registration increased in the 7th, most of those new voters did not turn out. Stender never had any coat-tails to ride on, and she wasn't exactly connecting herself with Obama by waging a baseless negative campaign on Leonard Lance.
But that was for the 2008 election. My point is that those coat-tails won't be there for Corzine next year, since he'll be at the top of the ballot, not Obama. He's going to have to pave his own way and get Democratic voters to the polls in this non-presidential year if he wants to win a second term. He also has the disadvantage of being tainted by a controversial first term in which he approval ratings have been markedly low. While I still believe that New Jersey's blueness is probably too much for a Republican gubernatorial candidate to overcome, I disagree strongly with the proposition that Obama's popularity among voters will help him next year.
Change = Corzine?
I don't think most people/voters think Corzine is the change they want anymore. They believed him in 2005 and now he's just another politician who didn't do what he promised.
Media
Yes the media was in the tank for Obama...we've heard this before with Kerry, and Gore. Do you mean to imply that somehow red-blooded Americans are influenced by the liberal media in places such as Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, New Mexico. Even if you are correct that the NY TImes and Washington Post are liberal presses...who reads them? Where are they circulated? In NY, NJ, CT, MA...all blue states, DC and the surrounding burbs all liberal areas. The liberal media (that does not exist but for sake of argument we'll pretend that it does) hits in liberal markets. Fox news being the most watched news outlet in the country and being 100% in the tank for McCain (or simply Anti-Obama) didnt seem to indent on Obama's victory.