LoBiondo vs. Van Drew: will it happen?
By Wally EdgeJefferson Van Drew will take his seat in the State Senate in January as the first Democrat to represent Cape May and Cumberland counties in the upper house under the current State Constitution. You have to go back more than fifty years, to the days of Howard Sharp and Elmer Wene, to find another Democrat from New Jersey’s deep South.
But how long will Van Drew remain in the Senate? He faces some pressure from Democratic leaders to run for Congress next year against seven-term Republican Frank LoBiondo, and people who know Van Drew well says he very much wants to be a Congressman.
Defeating LoBiondo would be a much bigger lift than taking out Nicholas Asselta, and if Van Drew decides to run, he won’t have much time to make a final decision. Raising money for federal races takes time, and he’ll need to find support in places he’s never run before, like Atlantic and Salem counties.
Remember, Van Drew can be both cautious and a risk-taker. He gave up his Cape May County Freeholder seat in 1997 to run for the State Assembly (against GOP incumbents Asselta and Jack Gibson) and lost narrowly. He passed on a 1999 Assembly bid and instead challenged an incumbent Republican Freeholder and won his old seat back in 2000. In 2001, he initially declined to run for the Legislature (the Democratic State Senate candidate, William Hughes, Jr., the son of the former Congressman and no friend of Van Drew, lost to veteran GOP incumbent James Cafiero by 440 votes) and entered the Assembly race during the summer – only after he saw poll results showing Democratic gubernatorial candidate James E. McGreevey running ahead of Republican Bret Schundler. He beat Gibson that year.
When Cafiero retired in 2003, Van Drew declined to challenge Asselta for the Senate seat. In an alleged deal that parties continue to strongly deny, Asselta ran unopposed for Senate, and Republicans were fairly soft in the treatment of Van Drew’s Assembly re-election campaign. In 2005, Van Drew helped fellow Democrat Nelson Albano to win the second Assembly seat.
Some pundits say it might be tough for Van Drew to run for higher office so soon after beginning is term in the Senate.
Back in 1995, U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie entered the race for the Republican nomination for State Assembly just three months after being sworn in as a Morris County Freeholder. Voters didn’t like his “I’ve accomplished all I need to do” attitude, and backed Anthony Bucco and Michael Patrick Carroll instead.
LoBiondo could face a real race next year even if Van Drew decides not to run, although the newly-elected Senator appears to be the strongest potential Democratic candidate.
Contributors
Wally Edge
Reports that Lisa Jackson could be headed to Washington as Barack Obama's Environmental Protection Agenecy director means that Gov. Jon ... >
Bob Torricelli
There's nothing more difficult to see than the history before your eyes. It sometimes takes generations to understand the significance of ... >
Michael Patrick Carroll
OK, he didn't say precisely that, but when the Chairman of the Budget Committee informs us that governmental spending is the key to prosperity, ... >
Debbie Holtz
Score one for the Governor’s public relations team. For the last few weeks, they have been working overtime to fuel speculation Corzine was being ... >
Dr. Joseph Marbach
I am pleased to report the results from the first national poll conducted by Environmental Studies Program in the College of Arts and Sciences at ... >
Rob Tornoe
To view a larger version of this cartoon, click here. >
Michael P. Riccards
The media, which loves headlines and knows little history, is trying to sell President Elect Obama as another Franklin Delano Roosevelt. But that ... >
Joey Novick
When I was eleven, way back in 1965, my family was invited for Thanksgiving to my cousins’ cousins, a Jewish-Italian family who lived in the ... >
Juan Melli
After the entire Star-Ledger editorial board opted to accept the paper's buyout offer, John Farmer, a 26-year veteran of the paper, was tasked ... >
Carla Katz
A couple of weeks ago, my mother, Angelina Katz, did her second debate on behalf of Barack Obama. A debate? My mother? If you knew her, you’d be ... >
Patricia Quattrocchi
A rained out MusicFest this past September has provided Union County with $275,000 in insurance monies. The Union County Board of Chosen Freeholders ... >
Murray Sabrin
Today the Asinine Watch begins. With so many illiterate statements made about the economy by elected officials in recent days and weeks, it was ... >
Hot Topics
| Politicker INTERACTIVE | |
 |
Lawmaker Profile Follow the funding of your representatives |
 |
270 to Win See how Obama got to the magic number |
Most Active Stories
- Christie says give him four to six weeks
- Lonegan enters race for Republican gubernatorial nomination
- David Crabiel, longtime Middlesex Freeholder, dead at 78
- Lonegan to kick off his second gubernatorial campaign today
- Team Lonegan
- Amid economic downturn, mayoral backlash, Lesniak anticipates COAH finetuning
- Ariyan mum on BCDO chairmanship prospects
- Some county chairs keep their gubernatorial options open -- for now
- Marra will be Acting U.S. Attorney
- Breaking a glass ceiling: will New Jersey get a Latino Secretary of Agriculture?
- Correction: Weiner departure was not his own idea
- Torricelli on COAH
- Two N.J. super delegates go to Obama; Norcross backs Obama; key Clinton supporters endorse Obama
- At energy policy meeting, Rose fights with cabinet and walks away
- Sixteen Democrats are on Norcross' short list for Andrews House seat
- Roughneen in court today on signature challenge
- Jackson will be Corzine's new Chief of Staff
- Obama bundler says he lost $25 billion of N.J. pension funds
- New Jersey's Most Powerful Law Firms
- Amid economic downturn, mayoral backlash, Lesniak anticipates COAH finetuning
Recent Posts From Inside Edge
Quote of the Day
"The confidential agreement with Riccio completed in September and recently exposed by The Star-Ledger of Newark should spur U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie to assign top staffers to uncover the whole story before Christie leaves office. Corzine's settlement is another attempt to sweep the problems from his overlapping personal and public life under the rug. Christie should pull the rug out, and soon." -- An Asbury Park Press editorial run in this morning's newspaper, apparently unaware that Christie's last day was Monday.
Recent Press Releases
In the News
Read the expanded Wake Up Call, our summary of today’s news media coverage.
Today’s Must Reads:
James R. Lambert: Convicted Felon, Head of Authority― ONLY IN NEW JERSEY...AND PENNSYLVANIA
Why can't we find a role for Christie in Washington? ― MIKE KELLY
Christie Gives Notice, and G.O.P. Gains Hope ― DAVID KOCIENIEWSKI
Christie's legcy― THE BERGEN RECORD
Corzine for Treasury? Don't Bet on It.― WASHINGTON POST
Immigrants still in New Jersey― THE BERGEN RECORD
Syndicate
Van Drew for Congress
can we even find another credible candidate, other than Van Drew I don't see one.
I think he should give it a go.
How would it work?
Suppose Van Drew won the Congressional, would Democratic Party leaders pick a replacement for the remaining three years or would it go to another special election? If so, the State Democrats risk losing a Senate seat, as I doubt anyone but Van Drew could hold the seat.
So the question is whether the state Democratic Party is powerful on its own accord or does the national party ultimately have control?
Just Waiting to Take This Seat
District 2 is, in terms of voter registration in comparison to Districts 7 and 3, respectively, the most Democratic friendly district in the state with a Republican congressman and has been trending Democratic as of late, including in Van Drew's coup this week. The Dems, particularly DCCC Chair Van Hollen have their sights on this seat and for good reason. The money and the support will be there -- if the right candidate emerges, and Whelan and Van Drew both seem reticent about '08. The DCCC is recruiting heavily, though, and getting top-tier candidates to run across the country, and they have some money in the pocket. They may also wait until LoBiondo retires, if and when that happens, since, after all, he violated his oath to run for only 6 terms.
LoBiondo's district is now represented by all Democratic state senators, and there is a huge target on this back. Two of the more interesting names mentioned on politicsnj.com as a Dem challenger for this seat are Bill Hughes Jr. and Pat Croce.
Here we go again
Marty and his "trending" b-s. Give it a rest. Frank stays as long as he wants. Will it be expensive? Yes. But his support from the enviornmentalists and his strong support from the unions will keep Frank in office. I actually welcome Van Drew into the race. Attack number #1 - how many months was he in his new job before he decided it wasn't good enough and sought another office? Really shows his commitment to the will of the people. Also would make him vulnerable in his next Senate campaign. And it shows what Marty knows - or doesn't know. Pat Croce is a nut (plenty of skeletons in that closet) and Bill Hughes, Jr? How did his state campaign go? Frank already drove on Hughes into political retirement, He would happy to show the way to another.
living in a dream
The oc: You'll understand if I don't take trend analysis seriously from someone who claimed Don Sherwood would be "fine" (he is now free to spend time with his mistress, since he is no longer a congressman) and who claimed that Ferguson would win by "10-15%" over Stender, won't you? And you need not chase me from thread to thread, since you know how to contact me directly (can't say the same for you).
Hughes has some potential because of the name recognition in the area, and Croce would indeed be a wildcard; if you're going to apply the same standard to your own party, what qualifications did Allen have before she became an Assemblwoman? (she was in the same boat as Croce). There's also talk about former Menendez and Corzine press secretary M. Allyn Brooks-LaSure running for the seat.
LoBo has no Republican state senator left standing in his district, and he put a lot of his political capital, if not influence, at stake in Asselta and McCullough, both of whom lost by double digits. Of course, there was the Dem pick-up for Cumblerand Co freeholder, too. I'm not sure how a reasonable person couldn't claim that his district is trending Democratic. The Solid Democratic South has arisen, and I can sense this congressional seat is ripe for the taking.
If Congressman LoBiondo were
If Congressman LoBiondo were still as politically powerful as he once was, soon-to-be-ex-Senators Asselta and McCullough would have done far better than their distant finishes. LoBiondo threw his weight squarely behind them -- in fact, his chief of staff was on loan full-time to Asselta's campaign. And they couldn't even keep it to single digits. Moral of the story? Frank has been away too long, immersed himself in other interests, and his local organization has withered on the Vine.
I wouldn't be surprised if Gormley allies siphon off a similar level of Republican support in Atlantic County as Jeff consistently enjoys in Cape May County. So I ask you, is LoBiondo safe with a realistic quarter of his base poised to defect?
Now marry the changed political landscape since LoBiondo's last real race some 13 years ago with his serious Iraq and Coast Guard problems.
My friends and family in the district want a genuine alternative to LoBiondo. There is every reason for Van Drew to give it serious consideration. If he does not enter the race, it should be seen as less a sign of caution than an indication that Congressional Democrats could not assure a level of support commensurate with the late start he would require.
Not to be overlooked, too, is how that shiny new four-year term must look in comparison to the slog of the constant two-year Congressional cycle. Is he ready to give up dentistry?
Clueless as usual
Once again, Marty you twist things to make your point but fail to listen or speak to the truth. I may have said Ferguson was going to win by 9-12 points in May - six months out of the election but in late September I corrected that and said it was going to be closer than I had originally expected but he was going to win by closer to 5. Pretty darn close if you ask me. And again, Sherwood, five months out I said he would be fine. That was prior to him settling out of court. After that - which occurred in August I believe, I said it was going to be difficult for him to retain the seat. Selective hearing or plain ignirance to the facts on your part? And forgive me for not believing a word you say but you have never been part of a winning team in South Jersey, blabbed to anyone who would listen that Bodine had a shot (at what? Topping 35%?), Dennison was a sane candidate, and that the Camden machine is less corrupt than any other in the State. Moreover, you have made up quote and attributed them to others including me and have attacked me personally for losing a loved one in Iraq. And once again you show your utter igrnoance of South Jersey politics by stating that no Republican Senators are left in LoBiondo's district. Ummm - isn't Phil Haines a Republican? He has towns in Frank's district. Ummm - isn't Chris Connors a Republican? He has towns in the 2nd as well. And it is nice that you pick and chose areas outside your own to demonstrate D gains, but what about in your back yard? And Cherry Hill? How did the incumbent do there against a guy who raised $100? Lastly, thanks for the laugh on LaSure. I am "LaSure" he will get his butt kicked too - just like the Rotarian American you backed in Garrett's district? How is Congressman Rotarian American doing? Oh, yeah, he didn't win either.
LoBo rides in 08; Van Drew Challenges in 10
If its Rudy v Hillary in 08, and we'll know in a few months prior to Van Drew making a decision, LoBo is safe. Even though deep south is becoming blue'r by the day, Van Drew won't risk it. He knows deep south will not vote for a woman, so no coattails for him. He's been running for the past few years, and wants to enjoy life a little, especially his new "title." Voter turn out will be high next year, and in 04 Bush won Cape May 58% to 42%, but in Atlantic and Cumberland, Kerry won 53% to 47% and 52% to 46%, respectively. The demographics are changing rapidly in the Dems favor. LoBo gets a free ride next year, but he'll be looking over his shoulder. Come January of 09 look for Van Drew to start a two year campaign against LoBo. He'll need $$ and he'll have plenty of time to bank it. LoBo ran against Hughes and lost, but Hughes was smart and got the heck out...why face a tough campaigner like LoBo in his 60's? Van Drew will use LoBo's strategy against him....LoBo rides off in the sunset. Oh, and any talk of Whelan running is out of the question. Too much sand in his shoes. The question that remains - who is the R to emerge in the near future? Polistina? Possibly a woman?
DON'T DO IT, FRANK!!
DEERFIELD: LoBiondo Brothers Trucking is on fire
From staff reports
DEERFIELD — Dozens of firefighters are on the scene of a blaze at LoBiondo Brothers Trucking, in the 700 block of Landis Avenue.
Crews from Seabrook, Rosenhayn, Bridgeton and Vineland are working the fire, which appears to have broken out in the office of the trucking firm. Flames are visible from the roof of the office and doors on an adjacent loading dock are charred and blackened, according to a Daily Journal staffer on scene.
The staffer reports heavy black smoke visible for several miles leading into the scene.
The company’s trucks are stored in a lot at the rear of the building.
The Daily Journal will update this story with pictures and more information as soon as they become available.