Ferguson survives close race; could Stender's strong showing put Scutari on the danger list?
By Wally EdgeThe best race in New Jersey this year turned out to be in the seventh congressional district, where the same national issues that helped Democrats capture control of the U.S. House of Representatives nearly ended Republican Michael Ferguson's political career. Ferguson defeated Democratic Assemblywoman Linda Stender by a narrow 49%-48% margin, winning a fourth term by just 3,259 votes out of 193,272 cast. Two Indepedent candidates combined for 5,053 votes.
Ferguson carried Hunterdon County by 5,710 votes (56%-40%) and Somerset County by just 3,232 votes (52%-46%), while Stender carried Union County by a 717 vote margin (50%-49%) and Middlesex County by 4,966 votes (56%-41%).
Ferguson was one of the Republicans in Congress who recognized the potential for a tough race early enough to avoid being taken by surprise, and Democrats never really added Stender to their list seats they seriously though they could win. Stender could run again in 2008, but unless the political environment stays the same or gets worse over the next two years, Ferguson is not likely to have future electoral problems under the current map. (In the very Republican year of 1980, Marie Muhler won 49% of the vote against seven-term Democratic Congressman James Howard, but as the climate shifted away from the GOP, she won just 36% in her 1982 rematch.)
One Democratic leader wondered, albeit prematurely, whether Stender's strong showing and the upset defeat of Linden Mayor John Gregorio could create an opportunity for Stender to replace Nicholas Scutari as the State Senator in the 22nd district next year. Stender wanted that seat in 2003 when Joseph Suliga ended his re-election campaign, but Gregorio insisted on Scutari instead.
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Wow, I didn't see that anti-Republican wave coming. There are a
Wow, I didn't see that anti-Republican wave coming. There are a lot of solid R districts that we lost or just barely held on to. Our party really needed to be purged and I believe that was accomplished pretty nicely yesterday. The Bush presidency is over from a legislation point of view and our candidates in 2008 can run free of his influence and unpopularity.
McCain is the big, big winner last night. Allen is done, who many "insiders" thought would become the conservative alternative. McCain also campaigned for a lot of successful R's throughout this election cycle, who will owe him some support in 2008.
As for NJ, Menendez is a crook, but from the NJ voters point of view, all NJ pols are crooks! He need to focus on the issues, not personalities. Baroni is the only R to have any success in NJ over the past few years and look how he has campaigned.
Somerset You are such a gracious loser.
Somerset
You are such a gracious loser.
Mojo - Thanks for the kind words.....however, I'm a bad winner,
Mojo - Thanks for the kind words.....however, I'm a bad winner, so watch out in 2008! *laugh*
The sad thing about our state party/candidates, is the fact that we keep losing using the same playbook. It's not like we have won elections by solely focusing on personalities. Look what happened in 2003 with a very unpopular McGreevey.....this was an election where we should have made some gains.
Oh well.....
The GOP needs the biggest shake-up since the 1970's both in NJ a
The GOP needs the biggest shake-up since the 1970's both in NJ and nationally. To be so close with Stender should keep Ferguson up at night, don't anticipate the climate automatically improves in 2008.
Tom Kean's strategy of targeting only Republicans (with the right already not liking him)was foolish. There was no appeal made to Reagan Democrats and soccer moms, the two groups that swing NJ races. Kean had zero appeal to the ethnic groups of this state, instead running a lackluster campaign that showed he had no confidence in his beliefs. The nature of this state expects corruption, particularly when it provides people with so much.
We must refocus our party on winning ethnic voters, giving true alternatives to the current Democratic consensus and always portray optimism and confidence in our beliefs.
I agree with Pulaski that Kean made a big mistake campaigning on
I agree with Pulaski that Kean made a big mistake campaigning on his own turf and preaching to his own choir. For a while he polled ahead in counties like Bergen and Mercer...what happened?
As for Ferguson, I tend to think that he will be more prepared for next time. And maybe he'll wise up next time and NOT mention his opponent's name so much. She had free publicity at the GOP's expense. "Stender the Spender"...what nonsense.
You're right Pulaski! Throw everyone out and start over! There
You're right Pulaski!
Throw everyone out and start over! There is no one involved with the NJGOP that knows how to win a statewide race anymore. They use the same campaign managers and consultants year after year and lose year after year. Plus they refuse to listen to anyone who doesn't agree with them on campaign strategy.
Even with the anti-Bush sentiment, the race did not have to be an embarassment. Kean did not give anyone a reason to for For him and the reasons to vote against Menedez were never solidified. And where was the GOTV? A very poor job all around. Wilson and company have to go!
Any Republican who held on in this environment is an officeholde
Any Republican who held on in this environment is an officeholder for life.
***** I hate to say "I told you so," but I've been harping for w
*****
I hate to say "I told you so," but I've been harping for weeks (if not months) that the 7th was closer than people thought.
Many, many GOP'ers on this board were saying how Fergie would romp.
Hopefully, Stender will run again in '08, but sadly I agree with Wally that this year with the anti-Bush sentiment may have the best chance for that pick-up.
*****
*****