Democrats win Illinois house seat in race run by two ex-N.J. operatives
By Alex Isenstadt, Politicker.com ReporterDoes Foster’s victory in Illinois’ District 14 provide insight into the competitive U.S. House races in Districts 3 and 7?
According to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, it does.
A Saturday evening memo from DCCC communications director Jen Crider argues that NJ-3 and NJ-7 are more favorable to Democrats demographically than is IL-14. All three are suburban districts.
But the National Republican Congressional Committee says not to read too deeply into tonight’s results.
“The one thing 2008 has shown is that one election in one state does not prove a trend. In fact, there has been no national trend this entire election season,” said NRCC communications director Karen Hanretty. “The presidential election is evidence of that. The Democratic candidates are trading election victories from week to week and the nomination could hinge on a few news cycles. The one message coming out of 2008 so far is that what happens today is not a bellwether of what happens this fall.”
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Bellwether election
In 2006, when Hastert was running for reelection, Congressional Quarterly had Ill-14 listed as "Safe Republican." There are literally dozens of seats like this -- previously "Safe Republican" or "Leans Republican" -- that, because of retirements, are now at least possible to turn from red-to-blue. Ill-14 went for Bush by over 10% and Hastert won his seat routinely by 20%; now it is a Democratic seat.
Foster's victory last night not only had N.J. roots (congrats to Bowen) but also will prove a bellwether for the general election mood of the country. Democrats are winning more and more in previously safe Republican districts, and not even McCain and a million or two from the NRCC could save this Republican seat (hello, NJ-3 and NJ-7?)
Just out of curiosity
Has Pascoe ever won anything ever?
I have not followed his career until recent years. He seems to be a joke. Which makes me wonder why such a pivotal race would be given to him.
As for its effect in the 7th and 3rd races, all politics are local. Trenton politician and Norcross puppet, John Adler, has as much chance of winning as he did the first time and his mentor, Susan Bass Levin, had in 2000 - none!
Regardless of who wins the Republican party nomination (money is on Chris Myers - even Ocean County rank and file are defecting), the 3rd district will never elected a Cherry Hill liberal who, as Judiciary Chairman, has allowed dozens of unqualified and corrupt appointees get through in exchange for political favors.
Adler personifies Trenton corruption and will lose in a big way.
Oh and by the way John - I want my $11B of increases since you've been in the majority back. Jerk.
Not A Big Surprise
You had a nuclear GOP primary (with allegations of sex harassment).
A Democrat who made Illegal Aliens the centerpiece of his campaign.
A special election in the middle of Obamaland (with all the liberal white college kids in mid-Obamagasm).
And a 13-12 victory signals a national political realignment?
Oh, please.
One special election does not a trend make.
It's not about winning w/Pascoe
He looks so damn good in the bow tie and offers such witty quips that winning becomes a secondary consideration. The GOP establishment typically promotes these cookie-cutter preppy types while at the same time pushing aside streetfighters like Ed Rollins whose only concern is delivering victory.
As for Martin's emerging trends, I have two words to offer in refutation of his prognostication skills -- Rich Dennison. Enough said.
Disclaimer
An article from an Illinois paper says Pascoe forgot to put a disclaimer on the ads and they had to be taken down during the last critical week. That is really dumb. That does not explain why Forrester, Asselta and Schundler all lost but there is a pattern.
Failures abound
There were failures abound here. First, Pascoe was running things. Enough said. Second, Oberweis was a failed candidate. He has run for many offices and has lost every time in ciritical elections. Reminds me of Sabin. If at first you can't succeed, try, try, try, try, try, try and try again.