In a solidly Republican House district in Illinois, Democrat Bill Foster won a special election to replace ex-House Speaker Dennis Hastert. He defeated Jim Oberweis by a 52%-48% margin in a race managed by two onetime New Jersey political operatives. Foster's race was run by Tom Bowen, who managed campaigns for Paul Moriarty and David Mayer in 2003, while the Oberweis campaign was headed by Bill Pascoe, who ran campaigns for Bret Schundler, Douglas Forrester and Nicholas Asselta.
Does Bill Foster’s victory in Illinois District 14 provide insight into the competitive U.S. House races in Districts 3 and 7?
According to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, it does.
A Saturday evening memo from DCCC communications director Jen Crider argues that NJ-3 and NJ-7 are more favorable to Democrats demographically than is IL-14. All three are suburban districts.
But the National Republican Congressional Committee says not to read too deeply into tonight’s results.
“The one thing 2008 has shown is that one election in one state does not prove a trend. In fact, there has been no national trend this entire election season,” said NRCC communications director Karen Hanretty. “The presidential election is evidence of that. The Democratic candidates are trading election victories from week to week and the nomination could hinge on a few news cycles. The one message coming out of 2008 so far is that what happens today is not a bellwether of what happens this fall.”
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