Alex Isenstadt's blog

In a Democratic year, State Sen. Leonard Lance (R-Flemington) could win a congressional seat against the front runner, Assemblywoman Linda Stender (D-Fanwood)

With just four days left in the 2008 campaign, Republican Leonard Lance is poised to eke out an upset victory against Democrati Linda Stender, according to James Pindell, the editor of Politicker.com's The Pindell Report, which offers independent analysis of federal- and state-level races.  Pindell today moved New Jersey's 7th district seat from Leans Democratic to Leans Republican.

Pindell says that the decision of Democrats to dispatch their highest profile surrogate, former President Bill Clinton, to campaign for Stender is not something a campaign does when its ahead going into the final hours of a race.  PolitickerNJ.com reported this week that the Stender campaign has an internal poll showing her trailing Lance by four points.

"How did we get to this point?," Pindell asked.  "After a year of national Democrats and aligned organizations dumping millions of dollars behind Stender, the Democrat missed when she spent part of the last stretch of the campaign talking about abortion. If there is anything we learned from this cycle, it’s that social issues didn’t matter much. Other Democrats across the country gained traction by focusing on the economy. Should Stender indeed fall short, it would be a disappointing end to a race that Democrats had invested heavily in."

WASHINGTON – Republican U.S. House candidate Chris Myers will get a fundraising shot in the arm from Charlie Black, a John McCain advisor and former chief lobbyist for BKSH & Associates.

Black will be hosting the event at Washington D.C.'s Capitol Hill Club on Wednesday evening. Also attending the event will be U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa) and the New Jersey Republican congressional delegation. Individuals are being asked to contribute $500 apiece, while PACs are being asked to give $1,000.

Myers, who is the mayor of Medford, is facing off against Democratic state Sen. John Adler (D-Cherry Hill Township), in November. At stake is the seat of retiring U.S. Rep. Jim Saxton (R-Mount Holly Township).

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is up with its first television advertisement targeting Republican Leonard Lance, a 30-second spot tying the Flemington state Senator to Trenton.

The ad began running on cable stations in the 7th Congressional District last week, with a media buy totaling about $116,000.

“Watch Leonard Lance do the old Trenton dance,” an announcer says. “Dancing to the tune of big oil, pocketing thousands in campaign cash. Lance has those Trenton moves, voting against property tax relief for us but voting himself a 40 percent pay raise, sponsoring a state budget that gave us nearly $3 billion in new debt that paved the way for higher taxes.

“A new Lance dance in D.C.?” the ad concludes. “No thanks.”

Lance is competing against state Assemblywoman Linda Stender (D-Fanwood) for the seat of retiring U.S. Rep. Michael Ferguson (R-New Providence). Democrats have identified the race as a pickup opportunity, with the DCCC reserving about $1.8 million in air time in the district. The committee has already taken Lance to task in mail pieces distributed to residents in the district.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is reporting expenditures in two hotly contested U.S. House races in the Garden State today.

In the 7th Congressional District, where Assemblywoman Linda Stender (D-Union) and state Sen. Leonard Lance (R-Flemington) are competing for the seat of retiring U.S. Rep. Mike Ferguson (R-Ridgewood), the DCCC is spending about $14,000 on mail services and phone banking.

In the 3rd Congressional District, where state Sen. John Adler (D-Camden) is taking on Republican Medford Mayor Chris Myers for the seat of retiring U.S. Rep. Jim Saxton (R-Mt. Holly), the committee is investing almost $2,000 in phone banking.

The DCCC today also reported expenditures in competitive races in Virginia, Alaska, and Illinois.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is continuing its general election advertising and mail effort, this weekend reporting expenditures in key districts in New Jersey, Illinois, Ohio, Virginia, Alaska and Pennsylvania.

The committee is spending about $13,000 on mailings in New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District, where state Assemblywoman Linda Stender (D-Union) is taking on state Sen. Leonard Lance (R-Hunterdon). The committee’s investment in the district now totals just short of $40,000.

The new investments, reported Saturday, provide a window into the offense-minded posture congressional Democrats are taking this cycle. Of the six districts where the DCCC has announced new investments, only one is currently held by a Democrat.

Stender and Lance are competing for the seat of U.S. Rep. Mike Ferguson (R-Warren), who is retiring after four terms.

WASHINGTON -- Assemblywoman Linda Stender (D-Union) will be one of the candidates attending a Wednesday evening fundraiser for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s top “Red to Blue” recruits.

A Stender spokesperson did not provide further details about the event, but a separate Democratic source said that public interest groups, political action committees, and labor and business groups were expected to be in attendance at the fundraiser. The event is set to take place at the Democratic National Committee’s Washington headquarters.

The fundraiser is being bundled with a Thursday DCCC-sponsored training session for House challengers focusing on messaging and rapid response which party leaders and top committee aides are expected to attend. The DCCC held similar sessions in February and May. Stender’s campaign would not say if they would be attending Thursday’s training session.

PHILADELPHIA -- New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine said today he disagreed with the U.S. Supreme Court's decision last month to strike down the so-called "millionaire's amendment" campaign finance provision he championed and that would have affected New Jersey’s U.S. Senate race this year.

The provision, which Congress passed in 2002, said that when a candidate surpassed a specified self-contribution total the opposing candidate’s contribution limit would rise.

“I thought it was one way for people who end up running against well-to-do candidates who self-finance to be able to have a more level financial playing field,” Corzine told PolitickerNJ.com.

But in its 5-4 ruling, the Supreme Court argued the law violated the First Amendment rights of self-financing candidates.

Two Democratic state lawmakers running for Congress are being targeted by a new series of robocalls about gas prices from Freedom’s Watch, the conservative-leaning advocacy group. The calls, which will begin today, will go out to residents represented by Assemblywoman Linda Stender and Sen. John Adler.

“Hi, this is an emergency gas price alert from Freedom’s Watch. Did you know New Jersey gas taxes add more than 14 cents to every gallon of gas? 14 cents!” an announcer intones on the calls going out to voters in Stender and Adler’s districts. The call then asks what Stender and Adler are doing to address the issue. “Nothing,” announcer says.

“If we can’t depend on Linda Stender to stand up for us today, when can we count on her?” asks the call targeting Stender.

The robocalls will be going out to homes throughout the week. It is the fourth set of calls Freedom’s Watch has released slamming Democratic House incumbents and candidates. The organization just wrapped up its first radio advertisement campaign targeting Democratic incumbents.

Bill Cahir a former political reporter with Newhouse, which owns seven papers in New Jersey, has come up short in his bid for the Democratic nomination in the race for Pennsylvania’s Congressional District 5 seat.

Mark McCracken, a Clearfield County Commissioner, won the nomination, winning 41 percent of the votes cast. Cahir received 35 percent. Also competing in the primary was Lock Haven Mayor Rick Vilello, who received 24 percent.

"My journalism career is over," said Cahir following Tuesday’s loss, according to the Express-Times. "I'll talk to the Marine Corps and see what they want me to do and talk to my wife and see what she wants me to do."

McCracken will go on to face Republican Glenn Thompson, the Centre County GOP chair, in November’s general election.

U.S. Senator Frank Lautenberg, a Democrat, has won the endorsement of the Council for a Livable World, an anti-war group.

In a statement announcing the endorsement, John H. Johns, a member of the Council's board of directors, slammed Lautenberg primary opponent Rob Andrews on the issue of the war in Iraq.

"From the early days of the Iraq War, Senator Lautenberg stood strong as a vocal critic of the President's actions," said Johns. "Unfortunately, the same cannot be said of Congressman Andrews, who not only helped President Bush pass the Iraq War Resolution, but joined with Republicans to block efforts to hold the Administration accountable and bring our troops home."